In the NFL, Andrew Luck was one of the most hyped players a few years ago. Today, it is almost universally recognized that he’s a decent quarterback, but he isn’t getting nearly the same amount of buzz that he once was. Much of that is because he missed more than half of the season last year with an injury. However, Luck is expected to come back strong this season. Whether you love him or hate him, knowing what to expect from the Indianapolis Colts quarterback is smart, especially if you are planning on playing any fantasy football this year.
Luck has tremendous potential at the QB position, even after his disappointing season last year. But disappointment was to be expected thanks to a lacerated kidney. He played seven games last year and threw 15 touchdowns. To give you a better idea of his potential, that would end up extrapolating out to 34 touchdowns on the season, rounding down. Only five QBs beat that number last season: Tom Brady (36), Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer, and Cam Newton (all with 35). His potential puts him in among the elite in the game right now. He had a decent strong yards per attempt number too at 6.4, although it wasn’t nearly as some of the best. For example, Carson Palmer saw 8.7. Andy Dalton was right behind him with 8.3. Luck can improve here, and it’s almost certain that he will. It still remains to be seen whether that will happen or not.
He also has some glaring weaknesses. In his seven games, he threw 12 interceptions. That would have ended up being a huge number, well above the 18 that Bortles threw last season total. Some of this could have been due to his developing injury, so hopefully the number will be lower this season, but it’s not realistic to expect this number to decline as much as Luck needs it to in order to become a top three QB in the NFL. If you’re looking at him from a fantasy perspective, you need to make sure that your league doesn’t penalize you as much for interceptions as they reward you for his TD potential.
His completion percentage was also extremely low last year at 55.3 percent. Again, much of this is likely because of his injury. A number 5 to 8 percent higher than this is more realistic next year for him, granted that he stays healthy, of course. It’s also realistic to expect him to have a better running game next season. This part of his game isn’t quite as important, but it was virtually nonexistent last year. This will change, but don’t expect to see it happen in the first few games of the season as he will likely treat them more cautiously than normal.
Luck was recently awarded with the largest contract ever in NFL history. If he is able to compete with the likes of Tom Brady at this young of an age, then he deserved it. Whether you’re an Indy fan or not, it’s hard to deny that Luck is talented. He is also very young, and still several years away from being at his top potential as an NFL quarterback. This makes him a strong pick for dynasty football leagues now, rather than later. If he stays healthy, he is only going to get better, making him more valuable as a fantasy prospect in the future than he is now. The quicker you get him onto your team, the more you will save in salary dollars. And the sooner you can take advantage of his improvements in the game.